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Prediction for CME (2024-10-31T13:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-31T13:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34348/-1
CME Note: Faint, near partial halo CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-10-31T13:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is brightening and a subsequent eruption from Active Region 3877 (S16E02) beginning at approx. 31/12:51Z. The brightening is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with the eruptive material visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, and wide but faint field line movement seen South of the Active Region in SDO AIA 193. This flare brightened in tandem with AR 3875, however AR 3875 was responsible for the majority of the brightening and is there for the associated Active Region for the event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-03T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-03T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34351/1
Model Inputs:
2024-10-31T13:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=439.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-10-31T21:30Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-03T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-03T11:08Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-02T20:50Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-04T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241031_213000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.67 hour(s)
Difference: -5.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-10-31T23:07Z

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